Difference between revisions of "Funnel of Certainty"

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The Funnel of Certainty

The Funnel of Certainty is a process used to rate explanations, reach probable theories, and finally, determine laws. This "funnel" is separated into the different levels, from uncertainty (the lowest possible rank) to reality (the highest possible understanding of an assumption).

The Level of Uncertainty

Scientists and historians always start at the level of uncertainty, where little knowledge or information is known. It is here where questions are formed, which thus provides a series of explanations, all of which are equal because of the lack of evidence. This is what is known as the speculative phase. At this level, tests and investigations are set up to narrow the number of possible answers to any given question. Some solutions are therefore weeded out by testing, and others by the application of Ockham’s razor (simplest is the best). Progressively, the number of possible solutions are reduced to the next level in the funnel.

The Level of Probable Theories

In this level, the possible solutions from the previous level are weeded down even further through more careful observations until relatively certain explanations are determined. With these, scientists and researchers can continue to the next level and create adequate theories.

The Level of Laws

Ultimately, a law - a statement of a relation of phenomena that so far as is known is invariable (not capable of being changed) under the given conditions - is confirmed.

E.g. - when talking about the Law of Gravity, in one-g gravity, an object that is dropped will fall toward the earth.