19. Know the funnel of certainty and be able to explain it.
Contents
The Funnel of Certainty
The Funnel of Certainty is a process used to rate explanations, reach probable theories, and finally, determine laws. This "funnel" is separated into the different levels, from uncertainty (the lowest possible rank) to reality (the highest possible understanding of an assumption).
The Level of Uncertainty
Scientists and historians always start at the level of uncertainty, where little knowledge or information is known. It is here where questions are formed, which thus provides a series of explanations, all of which are equal because of the lack of evidence. This is what is known as the speculative phase. At this level, tests and investigations are set up to narrow the number of possible answers to any given question. Some solutions are therefore weeded out by testing, and others by the application of Ockham’s razor (simplest is the best). Progressively, the number of possible solutions are reduced to the next level in the funnel.
E.g. - Scientists first begin by asking questions out of curiosity. Assumptions and hypotheses are formed, all of which are considered plausible at the moment. As tests are conducted, some possibilities are thrown out. This is what takes a question into progression towards a law.
The Level of Probable Theories
In this level, the possible solutions from the previous level are weeded down even further through more careful observations until relatively certain explanations are determined. With these, scientists and researchers can continue to the next level and create adequate theories. By ridding of the useless explanation that are sure to be false, scientists can refine and narrow down their options, which helps them determine laws and the theories that help explain them.
The Level of Laws
Ultimately, a law - a statement of a relation of phenomena that so far as is known is invariable (not capable of being changed) under the given conditions - is confirmed.
E.g. - when talking about the Law of Gravity, in one-g gravity, an object that is dropped will fall toward the earth. This is a law, not capable of being changed unless some other force overrides it. For example, when a plane takes off, the law of aerodynamics nullifies the effect of gravity completely.
The Level of Reality
Reality is the last level in the funnel of certainty. It is never exactly "reached," because true reality could be completely distorted in one person's view and exactly right to another's. It could be defined as something that exists only from everything else and from which all other things come to be. The question, though, is whether or not reality is more certain than the most basic level. If reality changes continuously based on what we imagine it to be, it may very well be below the level of uncertainty. Nothing is perfectly stable at this level, which is why there is a gap between reality and the establishment of laws. By altering our perception of reality, we are continuously changing what is supposed to be certainty. Nobody actually know the real reality, only the one that we believe to be real. Who really knows what is real?
E.g. - We used to believe that the Earth was flat, and that the Sun revolved around us. That was our reality, and that was the "truth." However, as time went one, scientists disproved these two explanations. Thus, reality was drastically changed, and a completely different view is taken on. This altered reality completely, and most churches refused to believe that this was true. Why? Because their truth, their reality, lay in the fact that the world was still one giant plain, and that the world was the center of the universe.
E.g. - Take the Law of Gravity. We assume that, in one g-gravity, an object that is dropped will fall towards the earth. However, that is only an assumption, an educated guess, a hypothesis. Some gap always remains between our solutions and reality. We can only test the questions we ask by evaluating them through the Funnel of Certainty.
Sources:
1. The Manual for Cultural Foundations of Ancient Civilizations
