20. Define and explain theory as it applies to history.

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20. Define a theory as it applies to history. A theory is an opinion or thought that is not certain. As explained in the Eighth History Manual for Ancient History, a hypothesis comes from a theory, which can be approved or disapproved, thus generating the validity of the theory on a spectrum know as the "funnel of certainty". The higher on the funnel of certainty a theory, explanation, or statement is, the more likely it is to be accurate. The definition of a theory given is as follows: a framework by which we organize and understand the world around us today as well as the past. A good theory most likely consists of these three characteristics: Predictive, parsimonious, and powerful.

Beginning with the first principle of a good theory; Predictive. A theory must be predictive because it's sole purpose is to create a hypothesis which predicts the outcome an occurrence in the near future. If a theory is not predictive, then it simply cannot be a theory.

The second principle; Parsimonious. Being parsimonious means to be sparing. A good theory is undoubtedly brief and simple, and only states the main idea of what the theorizer's opinion or hypothesis is. In History, the more simple, clean cut theories lead to the most discoveries and because of the broader range of possibilities, raises their validity and accuracy. Keeping a clean slate when making a theory or debatable statement strays away from unnecessary details that complicate the thought and make it unclear, which lowers it on the funnel of certainty spectrum.

The third and final principle; Powerful. A theory in order to make a clear statement, must be impactful and powerful. In history, the most bold, unlikely theories are recognized and still referred to today. For example, Marx's theory of Material Dialectic.

According to Department of Archeology, Conservation and History, a theory is a way of expressing connections and ideas to the past, present and future. It can either be concrete or more abstract. On the concrete side, a theory can be a view of history, or an interpretation of the future. In this context, the view or interpretation would be mainly about a concrete idea or subject, for example, Darwin's theory on survival of the fittest. In this theory, Darwin explains how only the finest survive in nature, and nature is a concrete idea. An abstract theory would more likely be related to future theories and ideas, or in other words, how the theorizer interprets the future, or events that have many possible outcomes, or no outcome at all.

So, therefore, a theory in history means is a connection from the past to the future due to the interpretations of people in the past, the three P's, and how those people's hypotheses helped to lead the way for the future.

Photo: http://aeu.org/2015/01/darwin-day-garden-city/

External source: https://www.hf.uio.no/iakh/english/research/subjects/historiography/historical-theory-method/

History 8 Manual pages 6 and 7

Aleksa Banki