Pages 195-199

History 8 Environment Bone From a Dry Sea

A probable theory is right between a speculation and a scientific law on the "Funnel of Certainty." It is when the answers to questions from the speculative phase are investigated, and the possibilities are narrowed down. An example in the the novel "A Bone From Dry Sea" is after May Anna examines the scapula and says someone bore a hole into it and says, "Not just possibly. Look. There's these drill scratches this side, and look at the wearing this side. They've pressed down into it with a pointed flake, using a rock as an anvil, but they didn't turn the flake. They turned the scapula. If you didn't have a fully manipulable hand and wrist, you'd find that easier." May Anna uses scientific evidence to narrow the possibilities of what could have happened to this scapula. She has passed the stage of speculation because she has a piece of evidence, but she can not determine it a law yet because she has not identified a relatively certain solution.

Source: Manual page 5

Photo From: https://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/p/probable.asp

-Mary VanLoh