The Funnel of Certainty
The Funnel of Certainty is a device that we use to judge explanations. There are four stages (not counting reality) in the Funnel of Certainty: uncertainty, speculation, probable theory, and a law.
Every theory starts in the "uncertainty stage." This is where everything is possible, and all explanations are equal. We start asking questions.
Next comes the speculative phase. We start to narrow down the possibilities, using either testing, or Ockham's razor. Ockham's razor is the theory that when comparing two similar theories, the simpler one is best. It allows for fewer exceptions, among other things. http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html
The Probable theory stage succeeds it. As possibilities dwindle, the remaining solutions become probable, until relatively certain solutions are found.
After all that, if a theory rises beyond all those stages, it becomes law. A law is a statement or a relation of phenomena that is known as never changing under given conditions.
Sources: Due to the lack of resources I could find devoted to either probable theory or the Funnel of Certainty, I was forced to rely solely on the manual, page 7 for the information (not concerning Ockham's razor).
