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Vinny,her father, and May Anna are sitting under a tree reminiscing about the trip, when Vinny remembers that she still has the fossil that she was drawing. Vinny's father didn't want to get anyone in trouble in case their bags were checked, so they buried the fossil under a tree. May Anna was planning on coming back to the dig, and Vinny and her father weren't so May Anna was going to dig the fossil back up and slip it into the H-Bag, therefore no one would get into trouble. | Vinny,her father, and May Anna are sitting under a tree reminiscing about the trip, when Vinny remembers that she still has the fossil that she was drawing. Vinny's father didn't want to get anyone in trouble in case their bags were checked, so they buried the fossil under a tree. May Anna was planning on coming back to the dig, and Vinny and her father weren't so May Anna was going to dig the fossil back up and slip it into the H-Bag, therefore no one would get into trouble. | ||
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== Probable Theory == | == Probable Theory == | ||
Revision as of 17:49, 10 September 2012
Contents
A Bone from a Dry Sea pages 195 - 199
History 8 Archaeology Bone From a Dry Sea
Summary
Chapter Summary
Vinny,her father, and May Anna are sitting under a tree reminiscing about the trip, when Vinny remembers that she still has the fossil that she was drawing. Vinny's father didn't want to get anyone in trouble in case their bags were checked, so they buried the fossil under a tree. May Anna was planning on coming back to the dig, and Vinny and her father weren't so May Anna was going to dig the fossil back up and slip it into the H-Bag, therefore no one would get into trouble.
Probable Theory
The Probable Theory is a hypothesis that is not "set in stone", and it is very unsure. The probability of a theory depends on the Funnel of Certainty. If a theory is completley unreasonable and unlikely, like saying that in five years humans will be able to fly because they are sick of traffic, that is not probable. If a theory is probable and might possibly happen, like saying that fish might evolve their body temperatures so they can survive with global warming, that is probable. Saying humans will be able to fly in five years was particularly unprobable because other than being proposterous from the begining, it is to in depth. Putting a time limit on the theory is not a good idea because it makes it less possible, it was also to specific. Although, saying fish might evolve their body temperatures to resist warmer waters is probable, there is no time limit, it isn't making very many assumptions, and it applies to the world around us because global warming is becoming an issue.
The Funnel of Certainty
The Funnel of Certainty is a metaphorical ladder, and is how scientists, historians, and others decide how probable a theory is. If the theory is very specific, complex, and full of assumptions it will be lower on the Funnel of Certainty. If the theory is:
1.) Parsimonious- relativley simple
2.) Predictive- accuratley guess what will be observed
3.) Powerful- applicative to everyday life
then it will be rated higher on the Funnel of Certainty.
